Manchester City are still giving nobody anything — seven wins from seven. Arsenal remain close behind, Brighton have made another serious statement, while Manchester United have now gone five Premier League games without a win.
Before the round, we saved the 888STARZ line for six key fixtures. Four favourites delivered, but the two most revealing results came where the market either underestimated the winner or placed too much faith in reputation.
Manchester City vs Ipswich — 3–2
On the scoreboard, this was City’s most uncomfortable league game so far, but the performance itself was much calmer than the result suggests. Erling Haaland scored twice and found the net for a sixth consecutive Premier League match, while City made it seven straight wins to open the season.
888STARZ: 1.29 / 6.91 / 10.70 — the 1.29 home win landed. The useful takeaway is not simply that a short favourite won, but that City are still finding ways to take all three points even when opponents punish almost every mistake.
Brentford vs Liverpool — 1–2
This was the most unusual pre-match line of the round: Brentford were slight favourites at 2.51, Liverpool priced at 2.87. The visitors created more — around 1.64 xG to 0.88 and 21 shots to 10 — although the red card shown to Yehor Yarmoliuk before half-time changed the game significantly, with Brentford later reduced to nine.
The 2.87 away win landed, and Liverpool badly needed that response after the 3–0 defeat to City. Still, it is too early to call this a full turnaround, because a large part of their second-half control came against reduced opposition.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — 0–1
Arsenal took the points, but this was far from a dominant away performance. Despite 74% possession, they generated only 1.14 xG to Forest’s 0.90, took fewer shots — nine to 14 — and scored only in the 80th minute through a deflected Noni Madueke effort.
888STARZ: 6.11 / 3.99 / 1.66 — the 1.66 away win landed. The price was right on the result, but the gap on the pitch was much smaller than the pre-match favourite status suggested. Arsenal are still collecting these tight wins through patience and decisive moments rather than overwhelming control.
Leeds vs Manchester United — 1–1
The cautious pre-match assessment proved justified here. Leeds finished ahead on xG — 1.41 to 0.92 — entered the box more often and responded quickly after Bryan Mbeumo had put United in front.
888STARZ: 2.42 / 3.70 / 3.01 — the draw at 3.70 landed. For United, this is no longer an isolated bad result: they have gone five league games without a win, and the performance level gives little reason to dismiss the run as simple bad luck.
Two More Important Signals From the Line
Chelsea beat Everton 2–0 and fully justified the 2.23 away price. They won the xG battle 1.47–0.43, took 18 shots to six and Pedro Neto scored twice.
Newcastle told a very different story. Aston Villa won 1–0 while leading the xG battle 1.57–0.99, so the 3.19 away winwas not simply a big price that happened to land — Villa genuinely created the better chances.
The Rest of the Results
Fulham edged Hull 1–0, Bournemouth beat Sunderland 2–0, while Brighton produced the biggest scoreline of the weekend with a 5–0 win over Crystal Palace.
Brighton deserve more than a passing mention. Their strong start is now being supported not only by points but by sustained attacking output, which makes this look increasingly like a real trend rather than an early-season spike.
What the 888STARZ Line Told Us
Four of our six selected favourites won: Chelsea at 2.23, City at 1.29, Liverpool at 2.87 and Arsenal at 1.66, with the important note that Brentford had actually been the slight pre-match favourite against Liverpool. The other two winning outcomes were the draw at Leeds at 3.70 and Aston Villa away at 3.19.
The match context matters more than the raw hit rate. Chelsea and Villa supported their wins with stronger underlying performances, Arsenal got a better result than their overall display suggested, while Liverpool’s victory came in a match heavily altered by a red card.
What We Take Forward
City remain perfect, and that is still the defining fact of the season. Arsenal are staying close, but their recent wins have required more effort than the table alone might suggest, while Liverpool still need to prove that Brentford was a genuine turning point rather than simply a useful reaction.
Two opposite trends are also worth carrying forward. Brighton increasingly look capable of sustaining a push near the top, while Manchester United have now gone long enough without either results or convincing underlying numbers for the problem to look structural rather than temporary.
UEFA Champions League