Matchday 3 produced 74 goals across 18 games, but the biggest story unfolded in Paris. PSG came out on top in a clash between two teams with perfect records, Barcelona suffered their first defeat of the season, and five clubs now sit on nine points after three matches.
Ahead of the round, we recorded the odds for six key fixtures at 888STARZ. The results show why the final score never tells the whole story. Bayern failed to beat Arsenal despite creating better chances, Stuttgart showed they had been underestimated, and PSG were comfortably the better side in a game the odds had priced almost evenly.
PSG 4-2 Barcelona
There was just 0.01 between the home and away win odds before kick-off: 888STARZ — 2.53 / 4.51 / 2.52. Barcelona were technically the narrowest of favourites, but PSG’s superiority on the pitch was far greater than the market had suggested.
The Parisians led the xG battle 3.70 to 2.23, registered 22 shots to Barcelona’s 18 and put 14 on target compared with five. Barcelona equalised twice, but the hosts took complete control of the closing stages. Vitinha made it 3-2 before Fabián Ruiz sealed the win.
The implications go beyond Barcelona’s first defeat of the season. Their attacking form had looked almost flawless until this trip, yet PSG showed they could not only match that intensity but create more and force Barcelona to defend under sustained pressure. After three games, the French champions lead the standings with nine points and 14 goals scored.
Bayern Munich 2-2 Arsenal
If anything, the scoreline flatters Arsenal. Bayern finished ahead on xG by approximately 2.47 to 1.71, created three big chances to Arsenal’s two and got into dangerous areas more often, even though possession and total shots were relatively even.
888STARZ: 2.14 / 3.96 / 3.39 — the draw landed at 3.96. The result did not favour the pre-match favourites, but Bayern’s shorter odds made sense given the chances they created. They were the side more likely to win on the balance of play. Declan Rice rescued Arsenal with an 82nd-minute equaliser.
For the London club, a point in Munich remains an excellent result. This was their first league-phase game in which the opposition genuinely created more, yet they still avoided defeat. Arsenal now have seven points from three matches.
Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal
Liverpool justified their status as favourites at Anfield, but hardly in the way their 1.56 home-win odds might have suggested. They were 2-0 down after 29 minutes before mounting a remarkable comeback to secure a third straight Champions League victory.
The numbers support the turnaround: 2.37 xG to 1.58, 22 shots to 14 and 44 touches in the opposition box to 25. Alexis Mac Allister scored twice, while 18-year-old Rio Ngumoha became Liverpool’s youngest player to register a goal involvement in the Champions League.
888STARZ: 1.56 / 4.83 / 6.04 — the home win came in, and the market was right to make Liverpool clear favourites. But seven goals conceded in three matches cannot be ignored. Liverpool have won three from three because their attack is outstanding, not because they are keeping opponents quiet.
Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig
This was one of the clearest examples of the pre-match expectations matching what happened on the pitch. 888STARZ: 1.29 / 7.06 / 10.00 — Real Madrid delivered the home win at 1.29, while also leading 3.10 to 1.42 on xG, 11-6 on shots on target and enjoying 65% possession.
Unlike the 4-1 victory over Sevilla, when the scoreline was considerably more convincing than the underlying chances, this commanding win was fully backed up by the performance.
Madrid have taken nine points from nine and remain perfect alongside PSG, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Real Betis.
Two More Lessons From the Odds
Stuttgart and Atlético Madrid drew 1-1, meaning the draw at 4.01 paid out, while Atlético’s away win at 2.13 did not. The scoreline actually understates Stuttgart’s advantage: 1.50 xG to 0.87, 18 shots to 10 and 39 touches in the opposition box to 21. Atlético also finished with ten men.
This was more than an unfortunate dropped result for the favourites. Stuttgart were genuinely underestimated. They remain unbeaten after three games and have seven points.
Inter’s case was the opposite. The home win at 1.23 came in, but their victory over Shakhtar Donetsk was only 1-0, with an xG advantage of 1.04 to 0.60. The Italians even scored the winner after Alessandro Bastoni had been sent off. Nothing about the performance suggested a mismatch as large as the 1.23 and 13.20 odds implied.
The Biggest Shock Outside Our Six Matches: Como 4-1 Manchester United
The scoreline is eye-catching, but this was no fluke. Como led the xG count by approximately 2.04 to 1.06, put eight of their 11 shots on target and saw Nico Paz deliver two goals and an assist.
For United, this is no longer an isolated European setback. They are winless in seven matches across all competitions and have won just one of their last 11 away games in the Champions League. Como, meanwhile, have won both of their first two home matches in the competition.
Other Matchday 3 Results
Manchester City swept aside AEK 5-1, with Phil Foden scoring a hat-trick. Napoli survived a dramatic 4-3 win over Bodø/Glimt, Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0, PSV won 1-0 away to Porto, and Borussia Dortmund claimed a 2-1 victory at Sabah.
On the second matchday, Galatasaray beat Lille 4-2, Aston Villa defeated Viking 3-1, Club Brugge overcame Lens 3-0, and Real Betis edged Feyenoord 1-0. LASK also pulled off one of the round’s biggest upsets, beating Sporting 3-2 in Lisbon.
What the 888STARZ Odds Really Told Us
Of our six featured fixtures, the shortest-priced selection won in only three: Liverpool at 1.56, Real Madrid at 1.29 and Inter at 1.23. Barcelona at 2.52, Bayern at 2.14 and Atlético at 2.13 all failed to win.
But simply counting winning favourites misses the point. Bayern failed to win despite creating the better chances, so their pre-match favouritism was supported by the performance. Atlético, on the other hand, failed to justify their status against Stuttgart both in the result and the underlying numbers. In Paris, the market saw an almost perfectly balanced contest, but PSG created a much more convincing advantage than the odds suggested.
That is the key difference between a bet losing and the market misreading a match.
The Main Takeaways After Matchday 3
PSG have been the most convincing side so far: three wins, 14 goals and now a statement victory over Barcelona. Real Madrid have also won all three matches, and this time their emphatic scoreline was backed up by an equally dominant chance-quality advantage.
Liverpool’s nine points are flawless on paper, but seven goals conceded raise questions about whether that approach is sustainable. Arsenal passed their first genuinely demanding test without losing, while Stuttgart are starting to look like more than surprise visitors near the top of the table. Their performance against Atlético suggests those seven points are well deserved.
Finally, two clubs are heading in very different directions. Como are turning their Champions League debut into one of the stories of the season, while Manchester United’s 4-1 defeat is further evidence that their problems go well beyond domestic football.
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