Bayern returned to first place, but the round was more revealing than a simple reshuffle at the top. The pre-match 888STARZ line correctly identified four winners from our six key fixtures, yet the two favourites who failed did so for very different reasons.
Dortmund genuinely performed below what a 1.63 away price suggested. Stuttgart, by contrast, lost despite controlling the quality of chances, which makes their defeat a much less convincing argument that the market had misread the matchup.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig — 6–1
The scoreline looks brutal, and the underlying numbers do little to soften it. Bayern won the xG battle 4.27–0.62, Luis Diaz scored a hat-trick and added an assist, and the champions created enough to make the margin feel deserved rather than purely driven by finishing.
There is another detail worth carrying forward. Before travelling to Munich, Leipzig had won all three home games by a combined 14–0, but had yet to take a single point away from home, and the 1–6 simply exposed that split more dramatically.
888STARZ: 1.24 / 8.05 / 11.40 — the 1.24 home win landed. The more important takeaway for the next rounds is that Bayern are not just collecting wins; they are producing the chance volume to justify big scorelines.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — 2–1
Freiburg arrived as unbeaten leaders and even scored first, but Bayer held a clear edge in chance quality, winning the xG battle 1.39–0.81. Ibrahim Maza finished with a goal and an assist, while Patrik Schick scored for the sixth league game in a row and became the first Bayer player to find the net in each of the opening six matches of a Bundesliga season.
Squad depth mattered too. Carles Martinez made five changes after the European game, yet Leverkusen still improved as the match went on and created the better opportunities, so the result looks far more like a deserved win than a random stumble by the leaders.
888STARZ: 1.70 / 4.52 / 4.83 — the 1.70 home win landed. Freiburg remain close to the top, but their first genuinely difficult away test also showed why the market still rated Bayer more highly.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund — 0–0
This is one result that should not be dismissed as bad luck. Dortmund produced only 0.88 xG, Union 0.70, and neither side generated many clear chances over the 90 minutes.
The 1.63 away price therefore looked much more confident than Dortmund’s actual performance. They remain unbeaten and have conceded only four goals in six games, but they have scored just 11, compared with Bayern’s 22, and that attacking gap matters when both teams sit level on 14 points.
888STARZ: 5.34 / 4.63 / 1.63 — the draw at 4.63 landed. For future previews, this is now becoming a trend rather than a one-off: Dortmund have struggled to create enough against organised defensive blocks in consecutive league games.
Hamburg vs Stuttgart — 1–0
This is where the final score can be misleading. Stuttgart won the xG battle 2.67–0.93, hit the woodwork, and Hamburg goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes produced several important saves on his way to being named man of the match.
Miro Muheim’s 88th-minute winner carried only a 3% scoring probability according to the Bundesliga model. Hamburg have now won three straight league games for the first time in 16 years, so their form cannot be ignored, but the 1–0 result was still much stronger than the overall performance suggested.
888STARZ: 4.09 / 4.09 / 1.90 — the 4.09 home win landed. This is a good example of a favourite losing the result while the pre-match price still described the balance of play fairly well.
The Rest of Matchday 6
Eintracht responded to the previous round’s 0–6 defeat by beating Cologne 1–0, so the 1.92 home win landed. Hoffenheim defeated Gladbach 2–1, confirming the 2.10 away price, while Borussia Monchengladbach remain without a single point after six games.
Werder came back from 0–2 down to draw 2–2 with Paderborn, Mainz beat Schalke 1–0, and Elversberg edged Augsburg 4–3. The last of those was not simply a seven-goal shootout: both teams generated more than 3 xG, so the high score was broadly in line with the quality of chances.
What the 888STARZ Line Actually Told Us
Four of the six favourites won: Bayern 1.24, Bayer 1.70, Eintracht 1.92 and Hoffenheim 2.10. The more valuable part is separating the two failures, because they tell completely different stories.
Dortmund’s price looked too optimistic both in the result and in the quality of their performance. Stuttgart, however, lost despite holding a clear underlying advantage, so their defeat does not automatically mean they were overrated before kick-off.
What We Take From Matchday 6
Bayern and Dortmund both have 14 points, but the way they have reached that total is very different: Bayern sit on a 22–5 goal difference, Dortmund on 11–4. Freiburg and Bayer are only one point behind, while Leverkusen have taken 13 points from the last 15 since losing on the opening weekend.
The useful signals are clear. Bayern are producing championship-level attacking numbers again, Bayer are steadily forcing their way back into the race, Dortmund’s chance creation deserves monitoring, and Hamburg’s winning run currently looks stronger in the results column than in the underlying metrics. Those are the trends worth carrying into the next round rather than simply reading the updated table.
UEFA Champions League