Matchday 1 of the Nations League turned out to be less predictable than parts of the pre-match line suggested. Of the six games we highlighted in our preview, three 888STARZ favourites won, two underdogs came through at higher prices, and the Netherlands vs Germany clash finished level.
The biggest game of the round fully lived up to the billing, with England and Spain producing five goals at Wembley. Italy, meanwhile, began Roberto Mancini’s second spell with a home defeat, while Ukraine took all three points in a game where Hungary had gone off as the pre-match favourite.
England 2–3 Spain: Oyarzabal Decides It at Wembley Again
This story almost felt written in advance.
Mikel Oyarzabal scored the winner against England in the Euro 2024 final. Two years later, he returned to Wembley — and once again had the final say.
Spain made the perfect start, with Lamine Yamal scoring inside the opening two minutes. England responded before the break: Anthony Gordon levelled after a counter-attack, before a deflected Harry Kane effort put the hosts ahead.
The turning point came after half-time. Kane missed a penalty, and from there the game shifted. Alex Baena made it 2–2 before setting up Oyarzabal, who scored with 16 minutes left to seal a 3–2 Spain win.
Our preview had this as one of the tightest markets of the round:
888STARZ before kick-off:
England — 2.85 | Draw — 3.30 | Spain — 2.50
Spain were only narrow favourites, and that small edge was ultimately enough.
More important than the price, though, is the pattern: Spain have found another way to beat England in a major game, this time away from home and after trailing 2–1.
Italy 0–2 Belgium: the First Big Result Against the Line
This one went clearly against the pre-match expectation.
Italy started as slight favourites at 2.14, while Belgium were priced at 3.26.
On the pitch, Mark van Bommel’s side looked the more convincing team.
Mika Godts opened the scoring in the 21st minute after a Kevin De Bruyne assist. Gianluigi Donnarumma kept Italy alive with several saves, but substitute Dodi Lukebakio settled the match in the second half with a superb strike from 20 metres.
Italy 0–2 Belgium.
888STARZ before kick-off:
Italy — 2.14 | Draw — 3.56 | Belgium — 3.26
It was one of the biggest results from the six games we selected.
Roberto Mancini’s second spell with Italy begins with a home defeat. Van Bommel, meanwhile, gets the perfect result in his first competitive game.
Hungary 0–1 Ukraine: Sikan Delivers at 3.28
Another game where the market sided with the team that ended up losing.
Hungary were slight favourites in Budapest:
888STARZ before kick-off:
Hungary — 2.26 | Draw — 3.26 | Ukraine — 3.28
But the only goal of the night belonged to Ukraine.
The scorer made the story even better. Danylo Sikan was playing his first international in more than three years and marked his return by scoring the winner. It was his first goal for Ukraine since September 2021.
0–1, and Ukraine begin Group B2 with three valuable points away from home.
On a short six-game schedule, that matters. Ukraine not only won their opener but also took points directly from a side the market had viewed as one of their main rivals.
Netherlands 1–1 Germany: the Tightest Market Played Out That Way
Here, the pre-match line described the game almost perfectly.
The Netherlands were slight favourites at 2.38, Germany were 2.74, and the draw stood at 3.74. There was very little between them.
There was very little between them on the pitch too.
Felix Nmecha gave Germany the lead in the first half, and Jurgen Klopp’s debut looked set to end with a win. But deep into stoppage time, Cody Gakpo struck on the volley to rescue a 1–1 draw for the Netherlands.
888STARZ before kick-off:
Netherlands — 2.38 | Draw — 3.74 | Germany — 2.74
Xavi Hernandez and Klopp begin their new chapters in exactly the same way — with one point.
Turkey 0–1 France: the Favourite Wins, but Not Easily
This one followed the market.
France started as clear favourites at 1.48 and took all three points thanks to their captain.
In the 54th minute, Michael Olise found Kylian Mbappe, who scored his 67th goal for the national team. There was concern soon after, however, as Mbappe picked up an injury and had to leave the pitch.
Turkey stayed in the game until late on, but the dismissal of goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir made the final stretch even harder for the hosts.
888STARZ before kick-off:
Turkey — 6.30 | Draw — 4.54 | France — 1.48
0–1 — Zinedine Zidane begins his France tenure with a win, even if it was far from comfortable.
Portugal 1–0 Wales: Three Points Without the Rout
The biggest favourite among our six games also did the job.
Portugal were priced at just 1.21, while Wales were out at 14.00.
Joao Felix scored the only goal in the 22nd minute after a pass from Nuno Mendes, finishing from outside the box. Portugal controlled much of the game, although Wales had a major chance to equalise when Brennan Johnson hit the crossbar in the second half.
888STARZ before kick-off:
Portugal — 1.21 | Draw — 6.35 | Wales — 14.00
There was no expected blowout, just a narrow 1–0, but the favourite still delivered the result.
How Our Six Matches Compared with the 888STARZ Line
| Match | Pre-match line 1–X–2 | Result | Against the line |
| Netherlands — Germany | 2.38 / 3.74 / 2.74 | 1–1 | Draw |
| Portugal — Wales | 1.21 / 6.35 / 14.00 | 1–0 | Favourite won |
| Italy — Belgium | 2.14 / 3.56 / 3.26 | 0–2 | Underdog won |
| Turkey — France | 6.30 / 4.54 / 1.48 | 0–1 | Favourite won |
| Hungary — Ukraine | 2.26 / 3.26 / 3.28 | 0–1 | Underdog won |
| England — Spain | 2.85 / 3.30 / 2.50 | 2–3 | Favourite won |
The opening round was a good reminder that international football is rarely worth reading through team names alone.
Spain justified their narrow favourite status, but only after coming from behind at Wembley. France and Portugal took the expected three points, both by a single goal. Germany let a win slip away in stoppage time.
The two biggest moves against the line came in Italy and Hungary: Belgium won in Rome at 3.26, while Ukraine took three points in Budapest at 3.28.
Matchday 1 is done, and several groups already look very different heading into the next set of fixtures.